Posted February 18, 2014

Long-Range Masters Prediction: Thunderstorms During Practice Rounds

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The Masters

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The wicked winter weather has worked its way north, but another storm is headed for Augusta National, and it’s set to hit during tournament week.

That’s the bad news from Gary Lezak, who claims special insights into such matters. The good news is, the system should sweep in during the practice rounds, leaving clearer skies once the serious play begins.

“I’m expecting it Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday,” Lezak says, “but with drier conditions the rest of the week.”

A call for precipitation nearly two months out?

Such futurism is normally the stuff of the Farmers’ Almanac. But Lezak operates through a younger forum. The chief meteorologist for Kansas City’s Action 41 News, he is also the founder of Weather 2020, a long-range weather forecasting app.

Predictions on the app arise from something called Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC), a weather forecasting method conceived by none other than Lezak himself. The system, Lezak says, allows him to pick up on unique weather patterns, which he uses as a portal to gaze into the distant meteorological future, well beyond the 7 to 10-day range where weather experts typically tread. Lezak says he’s relied on LRC long enough to establish a “proven track record.”

As recent evidence, he points to the days and weeks leading up to this year’s Super Bowl in New Jersey, when conversation swirled around the prospect of foul weather during the game. While some forecasters called for bitter cold and possible snow, Lezak says he cut against the mainstream and accurately predicted unseasonably warm weather.

“It’s always possible for a forecast to be wrong, but the goal is to use the technology we have to reduce your uncertainty,” Lezak says. “Imagine how much more relaxed (NFL commissioner) Roger Goodell would have been if he had been assured that bad weather wasn’t going to be an issue.”

As long as we’re on the subject, it’s worth mentioning: not all weather experts are so certain about LRC.

Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Lab, says he’s skeptical of the purported science behind such long-range forecasts.

There’s a reason, Brooks says, that most weather forecasts stick to the 7 to 10-day range.

“It’s simply too difficult to predict what the atmosphere is going to be like beyond that time frame,” Brooks says.

Between now and the April start of the Masters, Brooks says, the air around Augusta National is going to do a lot of traveling, cicumnavigating the globe more than once.

“To say that those patterns are going to repeat in precisely the same way, that that air is going to come back to exactly the same place” Brooks says, “I have a hard time giving that a lot of credence.”

None of which shakes Lezak’s confidence.

He says that every year, around mid-October, a “unique weather pattern” begins setting up, and that by around December, “a lightbulb goes on, and I say, ‘My gosh, December 15 looks just like October 15.’”

Okay, so there’s your weather.

But how about an even bolder forecast?

“You’ve got to go with Tiger Woods,” Lezak says. “I’d put his chances at winning at 27 percent.”

Here, again, he’s at odds with other experts. Vegas has Woods at 5 to 1.

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2 comments
Nospin
Nospin

they pay people to do that? and write about it?

pk20152
pk20152

Are you serious? Really?  48 Days away and rain is being predicted. I think there's a 50/50 chance of rain at the US Open... I guess I can call myself a weatherman now. 

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